Hey folks, Art here. When a housing headline says sales have dropped sharply, it can leave you wondering whether to put your home search on hold…or start looking for a deal.
Before making either decision, it helps to understand what was measured. The latest pending-sales report gives us useful information, but it leaves some important questions unanswered.
What the September report tells us
The National Association of REALTORS® reported that pending home sales fell 7.3% in September 2026 from August, after seasonal adjustment, and were 11.3% below September 2025. All four regions saw monthly declines. That is a meaningful slowdown in contract activity.
The word to pay attention to is “pending.”
NAR’s index tracks signed contracts for existing homes. Those buyers and sellers have reached an agreement, but they have not necessarily made it to the closing table. Most pending transactions become completed sales, typically one or two months later. Some contracts fall through.
That makes pending sales useful for watching where completed sales may be headed. It does not guarantee what next month’s closings will look like.
Fewer contracts do not tell us the price of your next home
A drop in contract activity and a drop in home prices are different things. This report measures activity, so a 7.3% decline does not mean home values fell 7.3%.
It also cannot tell you what a particular seller in Tucker will accept or how much competition there is for a condo in Decatur. Those questions need recent, comparable local information.
I covered the broader buying considerations in my fall Atlanta homebuying guide. This report adds a national signal, not a replacement for that property-by-property work.
Affordability still comes back to your household
Even if a seller lowers the price, you still need to know whether the full cost fits comfortably.
That means looking at principal and interest, taxes, insurance, any mortgage insurance, association dues, and the money you will need for upkeep. Cash needed at closing matters, too.
Use the financing available to you now. A purchase should not depend on an assumption that you can refinance into a lower payment later.
Have two specific conversations before you change your plans
With your real estate agent, ask:
- What have genuinely similar homes sold for recently?
- How long are those homes taking to go under contract?
- Are sellers making price reductions or offering concessions in my price range, and what evidence supports that?
With your lender, ask:
- What is my estimated total monthly housing cost at today’s quoted terms?
- How much cash would I need to close, and what would remain afterward?
- If a seller offers closing-cost assistance, how would the loan’s limits and requirements apply?
Bring an actual property or realistic price range to those conversations. You will learn more from working through specific numbers than from trying to turn one national percentage into a buying decision.
The bottom line
A sharp decline in pending sales deserves attention. You can take it seriously while still making a decision around your own circumstances.
If the payment feels too tight, pause and work through it. If a move fits your needs, use the report as a reason to ask better questions before making an offer.
Let’s talk through your starting point. You do not need every answer before we begin.
Art Wood, NMLS #118234 | Luminate Bank, NMLS #1281698 | Member FDIC | Equal Housing Lender.
For general educational purposes only, not individualized financial advice or a commitment to lend. Loan approval is subject to verification and applicable requirements.
Sources
NAR September 2026 pending home sales report
NAR Pending Home Sales Index methodology
Inspiration: Wolf Street article
